HMBS July 2020 Part II: About That Equilibrium …

Outstanding HMBS rose by about $686 million in July, as payoffs fell and issuance continued to grow. Payoffs totaled approximately $877 million, as mandatory purchases continued to fall. Total outstanding HMBS rose to over $55 billion, the highest total in 18 months. Is this the end of the HMBS range-bound equilibrium of the last year and a half, in which HMBS issuance and interest roll-up roughly equaled payoffs?

In 2019, HMBS posted the lowest annual total in five years. But 2020 is shaping up differently. In recent months, low interest rates and a higher lending limit boosted production significantly, while Mandatory Buyouts continue to fall. July was a case in point, with buyout dollar volume falling amid strong loan production. Overall Ginnie Mae production was $70 billion in July, also a record, and up 48% from a year ago.

“Peak Buyout” was an echo of the peak issuance from 2009 through the first half of 2013. Much of this production has already been repurchased by the issuers or repaid by borrowers. Each month fewer and fewer of these peak issuance HECMs remain, so fewer reach their buyout threshold, equal to 98% of their Maximum Claim Amount (“MCA”). Peak Buyout is long gone.

Our friends at Recursion broke down the prepayment numbers further: the 98% MCA mandatory purchases totaled $305 million, yet another 5-year low. This continues the downward trend from the buyout peak in the third quarter of 2018, which averaged over $750 million in Mandatory Purchases per month.

New View Advisors compiled this data from publicly available Ginnie Mae data as well as private sources.

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