HMBS May 2020 Part II: Float Remains in Equilibrium Just Above $54 Billion

Outstanding HMBS rose $150 million in May, as payoffs fell and issuance remained strong. Payoffs totaled approximately $770 million, down about $20 million from last month. Total outstanding HMBS has inched up to $54.4 billion. Over the last 18 months, HMBS float has been in a state of equilibrium where new issuance and interest roll-up equal payoffs.

Continuing declines in Mandatory Buyouts are still occurring, with buyout dollar volume near its lowest level in 5 years. “Peak Buyout” was an echo of the peak issuance from 2009 through the first half of 2013. Much of this production has already been repurchased by the issuers or repaid by borrowers. Many HECM loans continue to reach their buyout threshold, equal to 98% of their Maximum Claim Amount (“MCA”), but Peak Buyout is long gone.

Our friends at Recursion broke down the prepayment numbers further: the 98% MCA mandatory purchases totaled just $344 million, the lowest amount since 2015. This continues the downward trend from the buyout peak in the third quarter of 2018, which averaged over $750 million in Mandatory Buyouts per month.

New View Advisors compiled this data from publicly available Ginnie Mae data as well as private sources.

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